I must say though that this is a classic situation where one's guess is as good as anybody else's. There are simply too many variables at work here, and all we can do is speculate.
That said, I am surprised how quickly the violence had escalated on both sides. This is very uncanny. The Kremlin is clearly interested in keeping Ukraine on a tight leash, but I really doubt we are interested in sponsoring bloodshed and in the chaos that will inevitably result. Particularly now, with Putin's newly-minted image of a benevolent ruler (with a Nobel peace prize by proxy, you might say), I can't see how he would allow himself to be seen as even remotely associated with the sort of grim business that's taking place in Ukraine. Add to that the fact that he was never a great admirer of Yanukovich, and you get a combination that is as likely to explode in the latter's face as anything. In fact, if the opposition leaders are clever, they will be trying to forge a set of agreements with Putin even now; in which case Y. is forfeit.
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branchandroot
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Date: 2014-01-23 08:35 am (UTC)That said, I am surprised how quickly the violence had escalated on both sides. This is very uncanny. The Kremlin is clearly interested in keeping Ukraine on a tight leash, but I really doubt we are interested in sponsoring bloodshed and in the chaos that will inevitably result. Particularly now, with Putin's newly-minted image of a benevolent ruler (with a Nobel peace prize by proxy, you might say), I can't see how he would allow himself to be seen as even remotely associated with the sort of grim business that's taking place in Ukraine. Add to that the fact that he was never a great admirer of Yanukovich, and you get a combination that is as likely to explode in the latter's face as anything. In fact, if the opposition leaders are clever, they will be trying to forge a set of agreements with Putin even now; in which case Y. is forfeit.
It is all very muddy.